● Cross-Border Labour Tightness

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Three findings from the harmonized series. Each one carries its numbers, its chart, and a citation you can copy.

01

Which side of the border has the tighter labour market?

The United States, in every quarter since 2015. In 2026Q2 the harmonized US vacancy rate is 4.67% against Canada's 2.80%, a gap of 1.87 percentage points. The gap peaked at 2.46 points in 2021Q2, during the US hiring surge.

0.01.53.04.56.07.59.0201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026United States 4.67%Canada 2.80%
United States (ex-government)Canada (published total)Vacancy rate (%)

Richardson Dackam, Cross-Border Labour Tightness (Open Nshipyard), harmonized US-Canada vacancy rates 2015Q1-2026Q2. US: BLS JOLTS via FRED, government excluded, quarterly. Canada: StatCan table 14-10-0400-01.

02

Which industries are the tightest on each side?

In 2026Q2 the US leads in all 10 comparable sectors. The widest gaps are education and health services (US 5.37% vs Canada 2.73%), arts, entertainment and recreation (5.07% vs 2.53%), and mining and oil and gas (4.67% vs 2.28%).

Education and health services+2.63Arts, entertainment and recreation+2.54Mining and oil and gas+2.39Health care and social assistance+2.22Retail trade+1.70Trade, transportation and utiliti…+1.43Manufacturing+1.39Leisure and hospitality+0.78Accommodation and food services+0.41Construction+0.33← Canada tighterUnited States tighter →
US minus Canada, pp

Richardson Dackam, Cross-Border Labour Tightness (Open Nshipyard), sector pairs on identical NAICS definitions, 2026Q2. US: BLS JOLTS via FRED. Canada: StatCan table 14-10-0400-01.

03

Where is the race closest?

Construction: US 3.33% vs Canada 3.00% in 2026Q2, a gap of 0.33 points. Construction is also the one sector where Canada has repeatedly led: Canadian construction was tighter than US construction in every year from 2020 to 2026, peaking at 7.09% against 5.1% in 2022. Accommodation and food services is tight on both sides of the border (US 4.80%, Canada 4.39%), the highest Canadian sector rate in the comparison.

201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Construction-0.4+0.4-0.1+0.1+0.6-0.5-1.2-1.7-0.5-0.2-0.4-0.0Manufacturing+0.4+0.7+0.6+0.5+0.3+0.4+1.8+1.3+1.2+1.3+0.9+1.3Mining and oil and gas+3.0+3.0+2.0+2.2+2.5+2.3+3.1+3.1+2.2+2.2+2.4+2.3Retail trade+0.7+1.5+1.6+2.6+1.8+1.0+1.7+1.0+0.7+0.6+1.2+1.7Trade, transportation and utiliti…+1.2+1.4+1.3+1.9+1.5+0.9+1.9+1.1+1.0+0.5+1.1+1.3Education and health services+3.0+3.2+3.0+2.8+2.8+2.0+3.4+3.8+2.8+2.4+2.4+2.4Health care and social assistance+2.8+3.1+2.8+2.4+2.4+1.3+2.4+2.9+1.7+1.4+1.7+1.9Leisure and hospitality+0.2+0.9+0.6+1.2+1.0+0.5+0.1-0.1+0.8+1.4+1.7+1.1Arts, entertainment and recreation-0.5+1.1+0.1+0.4+0.6+2.2+2.1+1.5+2.3+2.3+2.5+2.4Accommodation and food services+0.1+0.8+0.7+1.3+1.0+0.2-0.3-0.5+0.4+1.1+1.4+0.8
Mean US-minus-Canada gap in percentage points, by year. Blue: US tighter. Red: Canada tighter.

Richardson Dackam, Cross-Border Labour Tightness (Open Nshipyard), sector pairs on identical NAICS definitions, 2026Q2. US: BLS JOLTS via FRED. Canada: StatCan table 14-10-0400-01.